Why do “climate experts” from the UN/IPCC never mention Grand Solar Minimum?
$begingroup$
I've read many papers about Grand Solar Minimums and Glassberg Minimums, known to science for very long time, studied and monitored with much of our Public Funds. History shows solar activity is the main driver of our climate, among other factors. The present Grand Solar Minimum was predicted since the 70s and we already see signs of it in solar activity and in our climate, yet it's consistently been and being ignored by the so-called ''climate experts'', by our governments, by mainstream media and even alternative media. What is going on?!
Solar activity reconstructed from tree rings and Carbon-14 data

Iconic paper by J.A.Eddy, 1976: The Maunder Minimum.
And many more studies available, as: Predicting the next solar cycles by Valentina Zharkova, 2014
NOTE: when I first posted this question it was quickly downvoted to -7 and no one wanted to answer. All comments were trying to "debunk" Grand Solar Minimum and none replied to my arguments in response. My (valid) arguments got no votes while those empty "arguments" trying to discredit, and who didn't reply afterwards, were all upvoted. All this is evidence of bias. This was like a coordinated effort to have the question "automatically deleted". PLEASE PLAY FAIR! I will ask that anyone who downvotes this question also comments with valid arguments, and replies back to my arguments. If it's found that their arguments were not valid, they will have to cancel their downvote and upvote the question as pertinent.
A scientific mind is looking for the truth whatever that truth is, and is always willing to reshape preconceptions based on new evidence. This question CAN be answered and MUST be answered, whatever that answer is. Scientific ETHICS are at stake!
climate-change paleoclimatology solar-terrestrial-physics
$endgroup$
|
show 2 more comments
$begingroup$
I've read many papers about Grand Solar Minimums and Glassberg Minimums, known to science for very long time, studied and monitored with much of our Public Funds. History shows solar activity is the main driver of our climate, among other factors. The present Grand Solar Minimum was predicted since the 70s and we already see signs of it in solar activity and in our climate, yet it's consistently been and being ignored by the so-called ''climate experts'', by our governments, by mainstream media and even alternative media. What is going on?!
Solar activity reconstructed from tree rings and Carbon-14 data

Iconic paper by J.A.Eddy, 1976: The Maunder Minimum.
And many more studies available, as: Predicting the next solar cycles by Valentina Zharkova, 2014
NOTE: when I first posted this question it was quickly downvoted to -7 and no one wanted to answer. All comments were trying to "debunk" Grand Solar Minimum and none replied to my arguments in response. My (valid) arguments got no votes while those empty "arguments" trying to discredit, and who didn't reply afterwards, were all upvoted. All this is evidence of bias. This was like a coordinated effort to have the question "automatically deleted". PLEASE PLAY FAIR! I will ask that anyone who downvotes this question also comments with valid arguments, and replies back to my arguments. If it's found that their arguments were not valid, they will have to cancel their downvote and upvote the question as pertinent.
A scientific mind is looking for the truth whatever that truth is, and is always willing to reshape preconceptions based on new evidence. This question CAN be answered and MUST be answered, whatever that answer is. Scientific ETHICS are at stake!
climate-change paleoclimatology solar-terrestrial-physics
$endgroup$
3
$begingroup$
See my answer below and please consider changing the title to something like "Do “climate experts” from the UN/IPCC consider Grand Solar Minimums?". So to do not convey misleading assumptions right from the start. I hope you are also "willing to reshape preconceptions based on new evidence" as you say.
$endgroup$
– Camilo Rada
2 hours ago
4
$begingroup$
@CamiloRada provided both an excellent answer, and a good suggestion about rewording the question to avoid a false assumption. Unfortunately there are still two other false assumptions in the question. First, there is not a 'present Grand Solar Minimum ... predicted since the 70s". And second, solar activity is not the main driver of our climate - for example the glacial and interglacial periods that have dominated the climate for the past million years or so are driven by subtle variations in earth's orbit and rotation.
$endgroup$
– Mark
2 hours ago
3
$begingroup$
"Playing fair" is a two-way street. You start out with some false claims - "solar activity is the main driver of our climate" - and some highly debatable ones - the very existence of a "Grand Solar Min/Maximum", and then want people to provide answers based on those assumptions. Is that playing fair?
$endgroup$
– jamesqf
1 hour ago
2
$begingroup$
Please don't SHOUT. It only makes you look like a crackpot, it does not help any serious discussion.
$endgroup$
– Vladimir F
1 hour ago
2
$begingroup$
Are you just trolling?
$endgroup$
– Eric Duminil
1 hour ago
|
show 2 more comments
$begingroup$
I've read many papers about Grand Solar Minimums and Glassberg Minimums, known to science for very long time, studied and monitored with much of our Public Funds. History shows solar activity is the main driver of our climate, among other factors. The present Grand Solar Minimum was predicted since the 70s and we already see signs of it in solar activity and in our climate, yet it's consistently been and being ignored by the so-called ''climate experts'', by our governments, by mainstream media and even alternative media. What is going on?!
Solar activity reconstructed from tree rings and Carbon-14 data

Iconic paper by J.A.Eddy, 1976: The Maunder Minimum.
And many more studies available, as: Predicting the next solar cycles by Valentina Zharkova, 2014
NOTE: when I first posted this question it was quickly downvoted to -7 and no one wanted to answer. All comments were trying to "debunk" Grand Solar Minimum and none replied to my arguments in response. My (valid) arguments got no votes while those empty "arguments" trying to discredit, and who didn't reply afterwards, were all upvoted. All this is evidence of bias. This was like a coordinated effort to have the question "automatically deleted". PLEASE PLAY FAIR! I will ask that anyone who downvotes this question also comments with valid arguments, and replies back to my arguments. If it's found that their arguments were not valid, they will have to cancel their downvote and upvote the question as pertinent.
A scientific mind is looking for the truth whatever that truth is, and is always willing to reshape preconceptions based on new evidence. This question CAN be answered and MUST be answered, whatever that answer is. Scientific ETHICS are at stake!
climate-change paleoclimatology solar-terrestrial-physics
$endgroup$
I've read many papers about Grand Solar Minimums and Glassberg Minimums, known to science for very long time, studied and monitored with much of our Public Funds. History shows solar activity is the main driver of our climate, among other factors. The present Grand Solar Minimum was predicted since the 70s and we already see signs of it in solar activity and in our climate, yet it's consistently been and being ignored by the so-called ''climate experts'', by our governments, by mainstream media and even alternative media. What is going on?!
Solar activity reconstructed from tree rings and Carbon-14 data

Iconic paper by J.A.Eddy, 1976: The Maunder Minimum.
And many more studies available, as: Predicting the next solar cycles by Valentina Zharkova, 2014
NOTE: when I first posted this question it was quickly downvoted to -7 and no one wanted to answer. All comments were trying to "debunk" Grand Solar Minimum and none replied to my arguments in response. My (valid) arguments got no votes while those empty "arguments" trying to discredit, and who didn't reply afterwards, were all upvoted. All this is evidence of bias. This was like a coordinated effort to have the question "automatically deleted". PLEASE PLAY FAIR! I will ask that anyone who downvotes this question also comments with valid arguments, and replies back to my arguments. If it's found that their arguments were not valid, they will have to cancel their downvote and upvote the question as pertinent.
A scientific mind is looking for the truth whatever that truth is, and is always willing to reshape preconceptions based on new evidence. This question CAN be answered and MUST be answered, whatever that answer is. Scientific ETHICS are at stake!
climate-change paleoclimatology solar-terrestrial-physics
climate-change paleoclimatology solar-terrestrial-physics
edited 2 hours ago
Camilo Rada
11.2k33576
11.2k33576
asked 4 hours ago
daniel brastaviceanudaniel brastaviceanu
205
205
3
$begingroup$
See my answer below and please consider changing the title to something like "Do “climate experts” from the UN/IPCC consider Grand Solar Minimums?". So to do not convey misleading assumptions right from the start. I hope you are also "willing to reshape preconceptions based on new evidence" as you say.
$endgroup$
– Camilo Rada
2 hours ago
4
$begingroup$
@CamiloRada provided both an excellent answer, and a good suggestion about rewording the question to avoid a false assumption. Unfortunately there are still two other false assumptions in the question. First, there is not a 'present Grand Solar Minimum ... predicted since the 70s". And second, solar activity is not the main driver of our climate - for example the glacial and interglacial periods that have dominated the climate for the past million years or so are driven by subtle variations in earth's orbit and rotation.
$endgroup$
– Mark
2 hours ago
3
$begingroup$
"Playing fair" is a two-way street. You start out with some false claims - "solar activity is the main driver of our climate" - and some highly debatable ones - the very existence of a "Grand Solar Min/Maximum", and then want people to provide answers based on those assumptions. Is that playing fair?
$endgroup$
– jamesqf
1 hour ago
2
$begingroup$
Please don't SHOUT. It only makes you look like a crackpot, it does not help any serious discussion.
$endgroup$
– Vladimir F
1 hour ago
2
$begingroup$
Are you just trolling?
$endgroup$
– Eric Duminil
1 hour ago
|
show 2 more comments
3
$begingroup$
See my answer below and please consider changing the title to something like "Do “climate experts” from the UN/IPCC consider Grand Solar Minimums?". So to do not convey misleading assumptions right from the start. I hope you are also "willing to reshape preconceptions based on new evidence" as you say.
$endgroup$
– Camilo Rada
2 hours ago
4
$begingroup$
@CamiloRada provided both an excellent answer, and a good suggestion about rewording the question to avoid a false assumption. Unfortunately there are still two other false assumptions in the question. First, there is not a 'present Grand Solar Minimum ... predicted since the 70s". And second, solar activity is not the main driver of our climate - for example the glacial and interglacial periods that have dominated the climate for the past million years or so are driven by subtle variations in earth's orbit and rotation.
$endgroup$
– Mark
2 hours ago
3
$begingroup$
"Playing fair" is a two-way street. You start out with some false claims - "solar activity is the main driver of our climate" - and some highly debatable ones - the very existence of a "Grand Solar Min/Maximum", and then want people to provide answers based on those assumptions. Is that playing fair?
$endgroup$
– jamesqf
1 hour ago
2
$begingroup$
Please don't SHOUT. It only makes you look like a crackpot, it does not help any serious discussion.
$endgroup$
– Vladimir F
1 hour ago
2
$begingroup$
Are you just trolling?
$endgroup$
– Eric Duminil
1 hour ago
3
3
$begingroup$
See my answer below and please consider changing the title to something like "Do “climate experts” from the UN/IPCC consider Grand Solar Minimums?". So to do not convey misleading assumptions right from the start. I hope you are also "willing to reshape preconceptions based on new evidence" as you say.
$endgroup$
– Camilo Rada
2 hours ago
$begingroup$
See my answer below and please consider changing the title to something like "Do “climate experts” from the UN/IPCC consider Grand Solar Minimums?". So to do not convey misleading assumptions right from the start. I hope you are also "willing to reshape preconceptions based on new evidence" as you say.
$endgroup$
– Camilo Rada
2 hours ago
4
4
$begingroup$
@CamiloRada provided both an excellent answer, and a good suggestion about rewording the question to avoid a false assumption. Unfortunately there are still two other false assumptions in the question. First, there is not a 'present Grand Solar Minimum ... predicted since the 70s". And second, solar activity is not the main driver of our climate - for example the glacial and interglacial periods that have dominated the climate for the past million years or so are driven by subtle variations in earth's orbit and rotation.
$endgroup$
– Mark
2 hours ago
$begingroup$
@CamiloRada provided both an excellent answer, and a good suggestion about rewording the question to avoid a false assumption. Unfortunately there are still two other false assumptions in the question. First, there is not a 'present Grand Solar Minimum ... predicted since the 70s". And second, solar activity is not the main driver of our climate - for example the glacial and interglacial periods that have dominated the climate for the past million years or so are driven by subtle variations in earth's orbit and rotation.
$endgroup$
– Mark
2 hours ago
3
3
$begingroup$
"Playing fair" is a two-way street. You start out with some false claims - "solar activity is the main driver of our climate" - and some highly debatable ones - the very existence of a "Grand Solar Min/Maximum", and then want people to provide answers based on those assumptions. Is that playing fair?
$endgroup$
– jamesqf
1 hour ago
$begingroup$
"Playing fair" is a two-way street. You start out with some false claims - "solar activity is the main driver of our climate" - and some highly debatable ones - the very existence of a "Grand Solar Min/Maximum", and then want people to provide answers based on those assumptions. Is that playing fair?
$endgroup$
– jamesqf
1 hour ago
2
2
$begingroup$
Please don't SHOUT. It only makes you look like a crackpot, it does not help any serious discussion.
$endgroup$
– Vladimir F
1 hour ago
$begingroup$
Please don't SHOUT. It only makes you look like a crackpot, it does not help any serious discussion.
$endgroup$
– Vladimir F
1 hour ago
2
2
$begingroup$
Are you just trolling?
$endgroup$
– Eric Duminil
1 hour ago
$begingroup$
Are you just trolling?
$endgroup$
– Eric Duminil
1 hour ago
|
show 2 more comments
2 Answers
2
active
oldest
votes
$begingroup$
Of course the IPCC mentions solar minimums and maximums and performs an extremely careful treatment of the reconstructions and predictions for the changes in solar irradiance. The Assessment Report 5, Working Group 1, Chapter 8, have a whole sub-chapter (~4 pages) dealing with solar irradiances.
The work of the IPCC is to combine the research of the whole scientific community, their conclusions are not based in the result of a single study but in the combination of pretty much all of them. Some studies could be contradictory, so instead of chreery-picking what suits them, they compare and combine all the studies to have the most reliable answers and a good idea of the uncertainties. If predictions of multiple models differ a lot it means uncertainties are large. If they all give the same result, we can be a bit more confident about it.
Fore example, the figure 8.11 compares the reconstruction of solar irradiance between years 1750 and 2000 from six studies:

You can see how there are significant variations of solar irradiance.
Here some excerpts from the IPCC reports that are relevant to this question, and where solar minimums are mention and considered in the wider context of climatic forcing:
Page 662:
Satellite observations of total solar irradiance (TSI) changes from
1978 to 2011 show that the most recent solar cycle minimum was lower
than the prior two. This very likely led to a small negative RF [Radiative Forcing] of
–0.04 (–0.08 to 0.00) W m$^{–2}$ between 1986 and 2008. The best
estimate of RF due to TSI changes representative
for the 1750 to 2011 period is 0.05 (to 0.10) W m$^{–2}$. This is
substantially smaller than the AR4 estimate due to the addition of the
latest solar cycle and inconsistencies in how solar RF has been
estimated in earlier IPCC assessments. There is very low confidence
concerning future solar forcing estimates, but there is high
confidence that the TSI RF variations will be much smaller than the
projected increased forcing due to GHG during the forthcoming decades.
{8.4.1, Figures 8.10, 8.11}
Page 690 (explicit mentions of grand solar minimums):
8.4.1.3 Attempts to Estimate Future Centennial Trends of Total Solar Irradiance
Cosmogenic isotope and sunspot data (Rigozo et al., 2001;
Solanki and Krivova, 2004; Abreu et al., 2008) reveal that currently
the Sun is in a grand activity maximum that began about 1920 (20th
century grand maximum). However, SC [solar cycle] 23 showed an activity decline not
previously seen in the satellite era (McComas et al., 2008; Smith and
Balogh, 2008; Russell et al., 2010). Most current estimations suggest
that the forthcoming solar cycles will have lower TSI [Total Solar Irradiation] than those for
the past 30 years (Abreu et al., 2008; Lockwood et al., 2009; Rigozo
et al., 2010; Russell et al., 2010). Also there are indications that
the mean magnetic field in sunspots may be diminishing on decadal
level. A linear expansion of the current trend may indicate that of
the order of half the sunspot activity may disappear by about 2015
(Penn and Livingston, 2006). These studies only suggest that the Sun
may have left the 20th century grand maximum and not that it is
entering another grand minimum. But other works propose a grand
minimum during the 21st century, estimating an RF within a range of
-0.16 to 0.12 W m$^{–2}$ between this future minimum and the present-day TSI (Jones et al., 2012). However, much more evidence is needed and at
present there is very low confidence concerning future solar forcing
estimates.
Nevertheless, even if there is such decrease in the solar
activity, there is a high confidence that the TSI RF variations will
be much smaller in magnitude than the projected increased forcing due
to GHG (see Section 12.3.1).
Summarizing, the IPCC consider solar irradiance variations, the timing of solar minimums and maximums. However, it consider also many other factors that also affect Earth's energy budget. Then, they do predictions based on the combined effect of all these factors. In contrast, some people tend to focus on just one factor (as solar activity) and erroneously assume that it will dominate over all the others.
For the particular case of solar activity, as you can see in the cites above. The IPCC acknowledge the possible occurrence of a solar minimum in the future, but combining all the models they conclude that there is a high confidence that its effects will be much smaller in magnitude than the projected increased forcing due greenhouse gases.
Part of the reason your question might not be well received is because it starts from an assumption that is false: "climate experts from the UN/IPCC never mention Grand Solar Minimum" they do mention it, and if you follow the references in the IPCC you will find plenty of discussion about Dalton, Maunder and older Grand Solar Minimums. And part of that discussion is to estimate the real impact that those events can have in Earth's climate. Then the IPCC get those estimates and figure out how they interplay with the many other factors that conjugate to determine current and future Earth's climate.
$endgroup$
$begingroup$
There is no mention "Grand Solar Minimum" in Chapter08. The 2 mentions of the "Maunder Minimum": one cites a study and mentions its estimates are opposite to most studies, and the other one is an estimate based on studying other distant stars.. mentions of solar cycles are all based on the 1750-to-present estimates by 4 studies and point out discrepancies, but still show a clear correlation between solar activity and TSI. The Maunder Minimum ended in 1715 and it's so convenient to cherry-pick the data starting 1750.. and with different temporal resolution like 5 or 7 years..
$endgroup$
– daniel brastaviceanu
49 mins ago
$begingroup$
This study provides TSI graphs that go back to 1600 arxiv.org/pdf/1601.05397 and you can see why the IPCC "experts" left it out of their literature.
$endgroup$
– daniel brastaviceanu
47 mins ago
$begingroup$
But anyways, TSI encompasses all the spectrum and if we look at what wavelengths from the Sun have the most heating effect here on Earth, we realize it's UV,, not infrared because the Sun is so far.. so it would be more relevant to look at UV output of the Sun during solar cycles and Grand Minimums/Maximums. Then the numbers would be more significant because they are not diluted within all the spectrum, from witch most wavelengths are irrelevant for heating effect. Cosmic ray increase affects climate also but those are particles.
$endgroup$
– daniel brastaviceanu
39 mins ago
$begingroup$
IPCC acknowledging solar Minimums and Maximums (11-year cycle) is irrelevant because this question is about GRAND Solar Minimums. Also, pointing to the latest IPCC report, citing cherry-picked older papers already rendered obsolete by monitoring data is irrelevant. This answer in not satisfactory. A quick "find in text" with keywords "Grand Solar Minimum" in IPCC literature reveals "0 on 0" results. I will keep the question as it is.
$endgroup$
– daniel brastaviceanu
26 mins ago
1
$begingroup$
@danielbrastaviceanu - so the paper you cited in the comment clearly says the new sunspot assessments have no impact: "Using the SILSO record, global warming estimates attributable to solar variability over the last four centuries may be up to 20 % less than current estimates suggest, perhaps causing only a 0.08 °C increase rather than a possible 0.1 °C increase in global surface temperature. These differences are negligible compared to uncertainties, and either contribution to overall global warming remains much less than those due to other climate influences."
$endgroup$
– Mark
8 mins ago
|
show 2 more comments
$begingroup$
I think the main question has already been answered. But I would like to add to the fallacy that:
History shows solar activity is the main driver of our climate, among other factors.
The Sun is undoubtedly the main source of energy for the planet and its climate. However, variations in solar activity are not the main cause of variations in climate. The main drivers are the "other factors".
Some examples of that are:
Faint young Sun paradox: The climate on earth has remained in the range that allows the existence of liquid water during billions of years despite large changes in the luminosity of the sun.
Milankovitch cycles: The cycles that control the ice ages that have dominated the planet during the last million years are not due to changes in solar activity, but to changes in the orbit and orientation of the Earth.
New contributor
Max M. is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.
$endgroup$
add a comment |
Your Answer
StackExchange.ifUsing("editor", function () {
return StackExchange.using("mathjaxEditing", function () {
StackExchange.MarkdownEditor.creationCallbacks.add(function (editor, postfix) {
StackExchange.mathjaxEditing.prepareWmdForMathJax(editor, postfix, [["$", "$"], ["\\(","\\)"]]);
});
});
}, "mathjax-editing");
StackExchange.ready(function() {
var channelOptions = {
tags: "".split(" "),
id: "553"
};
initTagRenderer("".split(" "), "".split(" "), channelOptions);
StackExchange.using("externalEditor", function() {
// Have to fire editor after snippets, if snippets enabled
if (StackExchange.settings.snippets.snippetsEnabled) {
StackExchange.using("snippets", function() {
createEditor();
});
}
else {
createEditor();
}
});
function createEditor() {
StackExchange.prepareEditor({
heartbeatType: 'answer',
autoActivateHeartbeat: false,
convertImagesToLinks: false,
noModals: true,
showLowRepImageUploadWarning: true,
reputationToPostImages: null,
bindNavPrevention: true,
postfix: "",
imageUploader: {
brandingHtml: "Powered by u003ca class="icon-imgur-white" href="https://imgur.com/"u003eu003c/au003e",
contentPolicyHtml: "User contributions licensed under u003ca href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/"u003ecc by-sa 3.0 with attribution requiredu003c/au003e u003ca href="https://stackoverflow.com/legal/content-policy"u003e(content policy)u003c/au003e",
allowUrls: true
},
noCode: true, onDemand: true,
discardSelector: ".discard-answer"
,immediatelyShowMarkdownHelp:true
});
}
});
Sign up or log in
StackExchange.ready(function () {
StackExchange.helpers.onClickDraftSave('#login-link');
});
Sign up using Google
Sign up using Facebook
Sign up using Email and Password
Post as a guest
Required, but never shown
StackExchange.ready(
function () {
StackExchange.openid.initPostLogin('.new-post-login', 'https%3a%2f%2fearthscience.stackexchange.com%2fquestions%2f16272%2fwhy-do-climate-experts-from-the-un-ipcc-never-mention-grand-solar-minimum%23new-answer', 'question_page');
}
);
Post as a guest
Required, but never shown
2 Answers
2
active
oldest
votes
2 Answers
2
active
oldest
votes
active
oldest
votes
active
oldest
votes
$begingroup$
Of course the IPCC mentions solar minimums and maximums and performs an extremely careful treatment of the reconstructions and predictions for the changes in solar irradiance. The Assessment Report 5, Working Group 1, Chapter 8, have a whole sub-chapter (~4 pages) dealing with solar irradiances.
The work of the IPCC is to combine the research of the whole scientific community, their conclusions are not based in the result of a single study but in the combination of pretty much all of them. Some studies could be contradictory, so instead of chreery-picking what suits them, they compare and combine all the studies to have the most reliable answers and a good idea of the uncertainties. If predictions of multiple models differ a lot it means uncertainties are large. If they all give the same result, we can be a bit more confident about it.
Fore example, the figure 8.11 compares the reconstruction of solar irradiance between years 1750 and 2000 from six studies:

You can see how there are significant variations of solar irradiance.
Here some excerpts from the IPCC reports that are relevant to this question, and where solar minimums are mention and considered in the wider context of climatic forcing:
Page 662:
Satellite observations of total solar irradiance (TSI) changes from
1978 to 2011 show that the most recent solar cycle minimum was lower
than the prior two. This very likely led to a small negative RF [Radiative Forcing] of
–0.04 (–0.08 to 0.00) W m$^{–2}$ between 1986 and 2008. The best
estimate of RF due to TSI changes representative
for the 1750 to 2011 period is 0.05 (to 0.10) W m$^{–2}$. This is
substantially smaller than the AR4 estimate due to the addition of the
latest solar cycle and inconsistencies in how solar RF has been
estimated in earlier IPCC assessments. There is very low confidence
concerning future solar forcing estimates, but there is high
confidence that the TSI RF variations will be much smaller than the
projected increased forcing due to GHG during the forthcoming decades.
{8.4.1, Figures 8.10, 8.11}
Page 690 (explicit mentions of grand solar minimums):
8.4.1.3 Attempts to Estimate Future Centennial Trends of Total Solar Irradiance
Cosmogenic isotope and sunspot data (Rigozo et al., 2001;
Solanki and Krivova, 2004; Abreu et al., 2008) reveal that currently
the Sun is in a grand activity maximum that began about 1920 (20th
century grand maximum). However, SC [solar cycle] 23 showed an activity decline not
previously seen in the satellite era (McComas et al., 2008; Smith and
Balogh, 2008; Russell et al., 2010). Most current estimations suggest
that the forthcoming solar cycles will have lower TSI [Total Solar Irradiation] than those for
the past 30 years (Abreu et al., 2008; Lockwood et al., 2009; Rigozo
et al., 2010; Russell et al., 2010). Also there are indications that
the mean magnetic field in sunspots may be diminishing on decadal
level. A linear expansion of the current trend may indicate that of
the order of half the sunspot activity may disappear by about 2015
(Penn and Livingston, 2006). These studies only suggest that the Sun
may have left the 20th century grand maximum and not that it is
entering another grand minimum. But other works propose a grand
minimum during the 21st century, estimating an RF within a range of
-0.16 to 0.12 W m$^{–2}$ between this future minimum and the present-day TSI (Jones et al., 2012). However, much more evidence is needed and at
present there is very low confidence concerning future solar forcing
estimates.
Nevertheless, even if there is such decrease in the solar
activity, there is a high confidence that the TSI RF variations will
be much smaller in magnitude than the projected increased forcing due
to GHG (see Section 12.3.1).
Summarizing, the IPCC consider solar irradiance variations, the timing of solar minimums and maximums. However, it consider also many other factors that also affect Earth's energy budget. Then, they do predictions based on the combined effect of all these factors. In contrast, some people tend to focus on just one factor (as solar activity) and erroneously assume that it will dominate over all the others.
For the particular case of solar activity, as you can see in the cites above. The IPCC acknowledge the possible occurrence of a solar minimum in the future, but combining all the models they conclude that there is a high confidence that its effects will be much smaller in magnitude than the projected increased forcing due greenhouse gases.
Part of the reason your question might not be well received is because it starts from an assumption that is false: "climate experts from the UN/IPCC never mention Grand Solar Minimum" they do mention it, and if you follow the references in the IPCC you will find plenty of discussion about Dalton, Maunder and older Grand Solar Minimums. And part of that discussion is to estimate the real impact that those events can have in Earth's climate. Then the IPCC get those estimates and figure out how they interplay with the many other factors that conjugate to determine current and future Earth's climate.
$endgroup$
$begingroup$
There is no mention "Grand Solar Minimum" in Chapter08. The 2 mentions of the "Maunder Minimum": one cites a study and mentions its estimates are opposite to most studies, and the other one is an estimate based on studying other distant stars.. mentions of solar cycles are all based on the 1750-to-present estimates by 4 studies and point out discrepancies, but still show a clear correlation between solar activity and TSI. The Maunder Minimum ended in 1715 and it's so convenient to cherry-pick the data starting 1750.. and with different temporal resolution like 5 or 7 years..
$endgroup$
– daniel brastaviceanu
49 mins ago
$begingroup$
This study provides TSI graphs that go back to 1600 arxiv.org/pdf/1601.05397 and you can see why the IPCC "experts" left it out of their literature.
$endgroup$
– daniel brastaviceanu
47 mins ago
$begingroup$
But anyways, TSI encompasses all the spectrum and if we look at what wavelengths from the Sun have the most heating effect here on Earth, we realize it's UV,, not infrared because the Sun is so far.. so it would be more relevant to look at UV output of the Sun during solar cycles and Grand Minimums/Maximums. Then the numbers would be more significant because they are not diluted within all the spectrum, from witch most wavelengths are irrelevant for heating effect. Cosmic ray increase affects climate also but those are particles.
$endgroup$
– daniel brastaviceanu
39 mins ago
$begingroup$
IPCC acknowledging solar Minimums and Maximums (11-year cycle) is irrelevant because this question is about GRAND Solar Minimums. Also, pointing to the latest IPCC report, citing cherry-picked older papers already rendered obsolete by monitoring data is irrelevant. This answer in not satisfactory. A quick "find in text" with keywords "Grand Solar Minimum" in IPCC literature reveals "0 on 0" results. I will keep the question as it is.
$endgroup$
– daniel brastaviceanu
26 mins ago
1
$begingroup$
@danielbrastaviceanu - so the paper you cited in the comment clearly says the new sunspot assessments have no impact: "Using the SILSO record, global warming estimates attributable to solar variability over the last four centuries may be up to 20 % less than current estimates suggest, perhaps causing only a 0.08 °C increase rather than a possible 0.1 °C increase in global surface temperature. These differences are negligible compared to uncertainties, and either contribution to overall global warming remains much less than those due to other climate influences."
$endgroup$
– Mark
8 mins ago
|
show 2 more comments
$begingroup$
Of course the IPCC mentions solar minimums and maximums and performs an extremely careful treatment of the reconstructions and predictions for the changes in solar irradiance. The Assessment Report 5, Working Group 1, Chapter 8, have a whole sub-chapter (~4 pages) dealing with solar irradiances.
The work of the IPCC is to combine the research of the whole scientific community, their conclusions are not based in the result of a single study but in the combination of pretty much all of them. Some studies could be contradictory, so instead of chreery-picking what suits them, they compare and combine all the studies to have the most reliable answers and a good idea of the uncertainties. If predictions of multiple models differ a lot it means uncertainties are large. If they all give the same result, we can be a bit more confident about it.
Fore example, the figure 8.11 compares the reconstruction of solar irradiance between years 1750 and 2000 from six studies:

You can see how there are significant variations of solar irradiance.
Here some excerpts from the IPCC reports that are relevant to this question, and where solar minimums are mention and considered in the wider context of climatic forcing:
Page 662:
Satellite observations of total solar irradiance (TSI) changes from
1978 to 2011 show that the most recent solar cycle minimum was lower
than the prior two. This very likely led to a small negative RF [Radiative Forcing] of
–0.04 (–0.08 to 0.00) W m$^{–2}$ between 1986 and 2008. The best
estimate of RF due to TSI changes representative
for the 1750 to 2011 period is 0.05 (to 0.10) W m$^{–2}$. This is
substantially smaller than the AR4 estimate due to the addition of the
latest solar cycle and inconsistencies in how solar RF has been
estimated in earlier IPCC assessments. There is very low confidence
concerning future solar forcing estimates, but there is high
confidence that the TSI RF variations will be much smaller than the
projected increased forcing due to GHG during the forthcoming decades.
{8.4.1, Figures 8.10, 8.11}
Page 690 (explicit mentions of grand solar minimums):
8.4.1.3 Attempts to Estimate Future Centennial Trends of Total Solar Irradiance
Cosmogenic isotope and sunspot data (Rigozo et al., 2001;
Solanki and Krivova, 2004; Abreu et al., 2008) reveal that currently
the Sun is in a grand activity maximum that began about 1920 (20th
century grand maximum). However, SC [solar cycle] 23 showed an activity decline not
previously seen in the satellite era (McComas et al., 2008; Smith and
Balogh, 2008; Russell et al., 2010). Most current estimations suggest
that the forthcoming solar cycles will have lower TSI [Total Solar Irradiation] than those for
the past 30 years (Abreu et al., 2008; Lockwood et al., 2009; Rigozo
et al., 2010; Russell et al., 2010). Also there are indications that
the mean magnetic field in sunspots may be diminishing on decadal
level. A linear expansion of the current trend may indicate that of
the order of half the sunspot activity may disappear by about 2015
(Penn and Livingston, 2006). These studies only suggest that the Sun
may have left the 20th century grand maximum and not that it is
entering another grand minimum. But other works propose a grand
minimum during the 21st century, estimating an RF within a range of
-0.16 to 0.12 W m$^{–2}$ between this future minimum and the present-day TSI (Jones et al., 2012). However, much more evidence is needed and at
present there is very low confidence concerning future solar forcing
estimates.
Nevertheless, even if there is such decrease in the solar
activity, there is a high confidence that the TSI RF variations will
be much smaller in magnitude than the projected increased forcing due
to GHG (see Section 12.3.1).
Summarizing, the IPCC consider solar irradiance variations, the timing of solar minimums and maximums. However, it consider also many other factors that also affect Earth's energy budget. Then, they do predictions based on the combined effect of all these factors. In contrast, some people tend to focus on just one factor (as solar activity) and erroneously assume that it will dominate over all the others.
For the particular case of solar activity, as you can see in the cites above. The IPCC acknowledge the possible occurrence of a solar minimum in the future, but combining all the models they conclude that there is a high confidence that its effects will be much smaller in magnitude than the projected increased forcing due greenhouse gases.
Part of the reason your question might not be well received is because it starts from an assumption that is false: "climate experts from the UN/IPCC never mention Grand Solar Minimum" they do mention it, and if you follow the references in the IPCC you will find plenty of discussion about Dalton, Maunder and older Grand Solar Minimums. And part of that discussion is to estimate the real impact that those events can have in Earth's climate. Then the IPCC get those estimates and figure out how they interplay with the many other factors that conjugate to determine current and future Earth's climate.
$endgroup$
$begingroup$
There is no mention "Grand Solar Minimum" in Chapter08. The 2 mentions of the "Maunder Minimum": one cites a study and mentions its estimates are opposite to most studies, and the other one is an estimate based on studying other distant stars.. mentions of solar cycles are all based on the 1750-to-present estimates by 4 studies and point out discrepancies, but still show a clear correlation between solar activity and TSI. The Maunder Minimum ended in 1715 and it's so convenient to cherry-pick the data starting 1750.. and with different temporal resolution like 5 or 7 years..
$endgroup$
– daniel brastaviceanu
49 mins ago
$begingroup$
This study provides TSI graphs that go back to 1600 arxiv.org/pdf/1601.05397 and you can see why the IPCC "experts" left it out of their literature.
$endgroup$
– daniel brastaviceanu
47 mins ago
$begingroup$
But anyways, TSI encompasses all the spectrum and if we look at what wavelengths from the Sun have the most heating effect here on Earth, we realize it's UV,, not infrared because the Sun is so far.. so it would be more relevant to look at UV output of the Sun during solar cycles and Grand Minimums/Maximums. Then the numbers would be more significant because they are not diluted within all the spectrum, from witch most wavelengths are irrelevant for heating effect. Cosmic ray increase affects climate also but those are particles.
$endgroup$
– daniel brastaviceanu
39 mins ago
$begingroup$
IPCC acknowledging solar Minimums and Maximums (11-year cycle) is irrelevant because this question is about GRAND Solar Minimums. Also, pointing to the latest IPCC report, citing cherry-picked older papers already rendered obsolete by monitoring data is irrelevant. This answer in not satisfactory. A quick "find in text" with keywords "Grand Solar Minimum" in IPCC literature reveals "0 on 0" results. I will keep the question as it is.
$endgroup$
– daniel brastaviceanu
26 mins ago
1
$begingroup$
@danielbrastaviceanu - so the paper you cited in the comment clearly says the new sunspot assessments have no impact: "Using the SILSO record, global warming estimates attributable to solar variability over the last four centuries may be up to 20 % less than current estimates suggest, perhaps causing only a 0.08 °C increase rather than a possible 0.1 °C increase in global surface temperature. These differences are negligible compared to uncertainties, and either contribution to overall global warming remains much less than those due to other climate influences."
$endgroup$
– Mark
8 mins ago
|
show 2 more comments
$begingroup$
Of course the IPCC mentions solar minimums and maximums and performs an extremely careful treatment of the reconstructions and predictions for the changes in solar irradiance. The Assessment Report 5, Working Group 1, Chapter 8, have a whole sub-chapter (~4 pages) dealing with solar irradiances.
The work of the IPCC is to combine the research of the whole scientific community, their conclusions are not based in the result of a single study but in the combination of pretty much all of them. Some studies could be contradictory, so instead of chreery-picking what suits them, they compare and combine all the studies to have the most reliable answers and a good idea of the uncertainties. If predictions of multiple models differ a lot it means uncertainties are large. If they all give the same result, we can be a bit more confident about it.
Fore example, the figure 8.11 compares the reconstruction of solar irradiance between years 1750 and 2000 from six studies:

You can see how there are significant variations of solar irradiance.
Here some excerpts from the IPCC reports that are relevant to this question, and where solar minimums are mention and considered in the wider context of climatic forcing:
Page 662:
Satellite observations of total solar irradiance (TSI) changes from
1978 to 2011 show that the most recent solar cycle minimum was lower
than the prior two. This very likely led to a small negative RF [Radiative Forcing] of
–0.04 (–0.08 to 0.00) W m$^{–2}$ between 1986 and 2008. The best
estimate of RF due to TSI changes representative
for the 1750 to 2011 period is 0.05 (to 0.10) W m$^{–2}$. This is
substantially smaller than the AR4 estimate due to the addition of the
latest solar cycle and inconsistencies in how solar RF has been
estimated in earlier IPCC assessments. There is very low confidence
concerning future solar forcing estimates, but there is high
confidence that the TSI RF variations will be much smaller than the
projected increased forcing due to GHG during the forthcoming decades.
{8.4.1, Figures 8.10, 8.11}
Page 690 (explicit mentions of grand solar minimums):
8.4.1.3 Attempts to Estimate Future Centennial Trends of Total Solar Irradiance
Cosmogenic isotope and sunspot data (Rigozo et al., 2001;
Solanki and Krivova, 2004; Abreu et al., 2008) reveal that currently
the Sun is in a grand activity maximum that began about 1920 (20th
century grand maximum). However, SC [solar cycle] 23 showed an activity decline not
previously seen in the satellite era (McComas et al., 2008; Smith and
Balogh, 2008; Russell et al., 2010). Most current estimations suggest
that the forthcoming solar cycles will have lower TSI [Total Solar Irradiation] than those for
the past 30 years (Abreu et al., 2008; Lockwood et al., 2009; Rigozo
et al., 2010; Russell et al., 2010). Also there are indications that
the mean magnetic field in sunspots may be diminishing on decadal
level. A linear expansion of the current trend may indicate that of
the order of half the sunspot activity may disappear by about 2015
(Penn and Livingston, 2006). These studies only suggest that the Sun
may have left the 20th century grand maximum and not that it is
entering another grand minimum. But other works propose a grand
minimum during the 21st century, estimating an RF within a range of
-0.16 to 0.12 W m$^{–2}$ between this future minimum and the present-day TSI (Jones et al., 2012). However, much more evidence is needed and at
present there is very low confidence concerning future solar forcing
estimates.
Nevertheless, even if there is such decrease in the solar
activity, there is a high confidence that the TSI RF variations will
be much smaller in magnitude than the projected increased forcing due
to GHG (see Section 12.3.1).
Summarizing, the IPCC consider solar irradiance variations, the timing of solar minimums and maximums. However, it consider also many other factors that also affect Earth's energy budget. Then, they do predictions based on the combined effect of all these factors. In contrast, some people tend to focus on just one factor (as solar activity) and erroneously assume that it will dominate over all the others.
For the particular case of solar activity, as you can see in the cites above. The IPCC acknowledge the possible occurrence of a solar minimum in the future, but combining all the models they conclude that there is a high confidence that its effects will be much smaller in magnitude than the projected increased forcing due greenhouse gases.
Part of the reason your question might not be well received is because it starts from an assumption that is false: "climate experts from the UN/IPCC never mention Grand Solar Minimum" they do mention it, and if you follow the references in the IPCC you will find plenty of discussion about Dalton, Maunder and older Grand Solar Minimums. And part of that discussion is to estimate the real impact that those events can have in Earth's climate. Then the IPCC get those estimates and figure out how they interplay with the many other factors that conjugate to determine current and future Earth's climate.
$endgroup$
Of course the IPCC mentions solar minimums and maximums and performs an extremely careful treatment of the reconstructions and predictions for the changes in solar irradiance. The Assessment Report 5, Working Group 1, Chapter 8, have a whole sub-chapter (~4 pages) dealing with solar irradiances.
The work of the IPCC is to combine the research of the whole scientific community, their conclusions are not based in the result of a single study but in the combination of pretty much all of them. Some studies could be contradictory, so instead of chreery-picking what suits them, they compare and combine all the studies to have the most reliable answers and a good idea of the uncertainties. If predictions of multiple models differ a lot it means uncertainties are large. If they all give the same result, we can be a bit more confident about it.
Fore example, the figure 8.11 compares the reconstruction of solar irradiance between years 1750 and 2000 from six studies:

You can see how there are significant variations of solar irradiance.
Here some excerpts from the IPCC reports that are relevant to this question, and where solar minimums are mention and considered in the wider context of climatic forcing:
Page 662:
Satellite observations of total solar irradiance (TSI) changes from
1978 to 2011 show that the most recent solar cycle minimum was lower
than the prior two. This very likely led to a small negative RF [Radiative Forcing] of
–0.04 (–0.08 to 0.00) W m$^{–2}$ between 1986 and 2008. The best
estimate of RF due to TSI changes representative
for the 1750 to 2011 period is 0.05 (to 0.10) W m$^{–2}$. This is
substantially smaller than the AR4 estimate due to the addition of the
latest solar cycle and inconsistencies in how solar RF has been
estimated in earlier IPCC assessments. There is very low confidence
concerning future solar forcing estimates, but there is high
confidence that the TSI RF variations will be much smaller than the
projected increased forcing due to GHG during the forthcoming decades.
{8.4.1, Figures 8.10, 8.11}
Page 690 (explicit mentions of grand solar minimums):
8.4.1.3 Attempts to Estimate Future Centennial Trends of Total Solar Irradiance
Cosmogenic isotope and sunspot data (Rigozo et al., 2001;
Solanki and Krivova, 2004; Abreu et al., 2008) reveal that currently
the Sun is in a grand activity maximum that began about 1920 (20th
century grand maximum). However, SC [solar cycle] 23 showed an activity decline not
previously seen in the satellite era (McComas et al., 2008; Smith and
Balogh, 2008; Russell et al., 2010). Most current estimations suggest
that the forthcoming solar cycles will have lower TSI [Total Solar Irradiation] than those for
the past 30 years (Abreu et al., 2008; Lockwood et al., 2009; Rigozo
et al., 2010; Russell et al., 2010). Also there are indications that
the mean magnetic field in sunspots may be diminishing on decadal
level. A linear expansion of the current trend may indicate that of
the order of half the sunspot activity may disappear by about 2015
(Penn and Livingston, 2006). These studies only suggest that the Sun
may have left the 20th century grand maximum and not that it is
entering another grand minimum. But other works propose a grand
minimum during the 21st century, estimating an RF within a range of
-0.16 to 0.12 W m$^{–2}$ between this future minimum and the present-day TSI (Jones et al., 2012). However, much more evidence is needed and at
present there is very low confidence concerning future solar forcing
estimates.
Nevertheless, even if there is such decrease in the solar
activity, there is a high confidence that the TSI RF variations will
be much smaller in magnitude than the projected increased forcing due
to GHG (see Section 12.3.1).
Summarizing, the IPCC consider solar irradiance variations, the timing of solar minimums and maximums. However, it consider also many other factors that also affect Earth's energy budget. Then, they do predictions based on the combined effect of all these factors. In contrast, some people tend to focus on just one factor (as solar activity) and erroneously assume that it will dominate over all the others.
For the particular case of solar activity, as you can see in the cites above. The IPCC acknowledge the possible occurrence of a solar minimum in the future, but combining all the models they conclude that there is a high confidence that its effects will be much smaller in magnitude than the projected increased forcing due greenhouse gases.
Part of the reason your question might not be well received is because it starts from an assumption that is false: "climate experts from the UN/IPCC never mention Grand Solar Minimum" they do mention it, and if you follow the references in the IPCC you will find plenty of discussion about Dalton, Maunder and older Grand Solar Minimums. And part of that discussion is to estimate the real impact that those events can have in Earth's climate. Then the IPCC get those estimates and figure out how they interplay with the many other factors that conjugate to determine current and future Earth's climate.
edited 1 hour ago
answered 3 hours ago
Camilo RadaCamilo Rada
11.2k33576
11.2k33576
$begingroup$
There is no mention "Grand Solar Minimum" in Chapter08. The 2 mentions of the "Maunder Minimum": one cites a study and mentions its estimates are opposite to most studies, and the other one is an estimate based on studying other distant stars.. mentions of solar cycles are all based on the 1750-to-present estimates by 4 studies and point out discrepancies, but still show a clear correlation between solar activity and TSI. The Maunder Minimum ended in 1715 and it's so convenient to cherry-pick the data starting 1750.. and with different temporal resolution like 5 or 7 years..
$endgroup$
– daniel brastaviceanu
49 mins ago
$begingroup$
This study provides TSI graphs that go back to 1600 arxiv.org/pdf/1601.05397 and you can see why the IPCC "experts" left it out of their literature.
$endgroup$
– daniel brastaviceanu
47 mins ago
$begingroup$
But anyways, TSI encompasses all the spectrum and if we look at what wavelengths from the Sun have the most heating effect here on Earth, we realize it's UV,, not infrared because the Sun is so far.. so it would be more relevant to look at UV output of the Sun during solar cycles and Grand Minimums/Maximums. Then the numbers would be more significant because they are not diluted within all the spectrum, from witch most wavelengths are irrelevant for heating effect. Cosmic ray increase affects climate also but those are particles.
$endgroup$
– daniel brastaviceanu
39 mins ago
$begingroup$
IPCC acknowledging solar Minimums and Maximums (11-year cycle) is irrelevant because this question is about GRAND Solar Minimums. Also, pointing to the latest IPCC report, citing cherry-picked older papers already rendered obsolete by monitoring data is irrelevant. This answer in not satisfactory. A quick "find in text" with keywords "Grand Solar Minimum" in IPCC literature reveals "0 on 0" results. I will keep the question as it is.
$endgroup$
– daniel brastaviceanu
26 mins ago
1
$begingroup$
@danielbrastaviceanu - so the paper you cited in the comment clearly says the new sunspot assessments have no impact: "Using the SILSO record, global warming estimates attributable to solar variability over the last four centuries may be up to 20 % less than current estimates suggest, perhaps causing only a 0.08 °C increase rather than a possible 0.1 °C increase in global surface temperature. These differences are negligible compared to uncertainties, and either contribution to overall global warming remains much less than those due to other climate influences."
$endgroup$
– Mark
8 mins ago
|
show 2 more comments
$begingroup$
There is no mention "Grand Solar Minimum" in Chapter08. The 2 mentions of the "Maunder Minimum": one cites a study and mentions its estimates are opposite to most studies, and the other one is an estimate based on studying other distant stars.. mentions of solar cycles are all based on the 1750-to-present estimates by 4 studies and point out discrepancies, but still show a clear correlation between solar activity and TSI. The Maunder Minimum ended in 1715 and it's so convenient to cherry-pick the data starting 1750.. and with different temporal resolution like 5 or 7 years..
$endgroup$
– daniel brastaviceanu
49 mins ago
$begingroup$
This study provides TSI graphs that go back to 1600 arxiv.org/pdf/1601.05397 and you can see why the IPCC "experts" left it out of their literature.
$endgroup$
– daniel brastaviceanu
47 mins ago
$begingroup$
But anyways, TSI encompasses all the spectrum and if we look at what wavelengths from the Sun have the most heating effect here on Earth, we realize it's UV,, not infrared because the Sun is so far.. so it would be more relevant to look at UV output of the Sun during solar cycles and Grand Minimums/Maximums. Then the numbers would be more significant because they are not diluted within all the spectrum, from witch most wavelengths are irrelevant for heating effect. Cosmic ray increase affects climate also but those are particles.
$endgroup$
– daniel brastaviceanu
39 mins ago
$begingroup$
IPCC acknowledging solar Minimums and Maximums (11-year cycle) is irrelevant because this question is about GRAND Solar Minimums. Also, pointing to the latest IPCC report, citing cherry-picked older papers already rendered obsolete by monitoring data is irrelevant. This answer in not satisfactory. A quick "find in text" with keywords "Grand Solar Minimum" in IPCC literature reveals "0 on 0" results. I will keep the question as it is.
$endgroup$
– daniel brastaviceanu
26 mins ago
1
$begingroup$
@danielbrastaviceanu - so the paper you cited in the comment clearly says the new sunspot assessments have no impact: "Using the SILSO record, global warming estimates attributable to solar variability over the last four centuries may be up to 20 % less than current estimates suggest, perhaps causing only a 0.08 °C increase rather than a possible 0.1 °C increase in global surface temperature. These differences are negligible compared to uncertainties, and either contribution to overall global warming remains much less than those due to other climate influences."
$endgroup$
– Mark
8 mins ago
$begingroup$
There is no mention "Grand Solar Minimum" in Chapter08. The 2 mentions of the "Maunder Minimum": one cites a study and mentions its estimates are opposite to most studies, and the other one is an estimate based on studying other distant stars.. mentions of solar cycles are all based on the 1750-to-present estimates by 4 studies and point out discrepancies, but still show a clear correlation between solar activity and TSI. The Maunder Minimum ended in 1715 and it's so convenient to cherry-pick the data starting 1750.. and with different temporal resolution like 5 or 7 years..
$endgroup$
– daniel brastaviceanu
49 mins ago
$begingroup$
There is no mention "Grand Solar Minimum" in Chapter08. The 2 mentions of the "Maunder Minimum": one cites a study and mentions its estimates are opposite to most studies, and the other one is an estimate based on studying other distant stars.. mentions of solar cycles are all based on the 1750-to-present estimates by 4 studies and point out discrepancies, but still show a clear correlation between solar activity and TSI. The Maunder Minimum ended in 1715 and it's so convenient to cherry-pick the data starting 1750.. and with different temporal resolution like 5 or 7 years..
$endgroup$
– daniel brastaviceanu
49 mins ago
$begingroup$
This study provides TSI graphs that go back to 1600 arxiv.org/pdf/1601.05397 and you can see why the IPCC "experts" left it out of their literature.
$endgroup$
– daniel brastaviceanu
47 mins ago
$begingroup$
This study provides TSI graphs that go back to 1600 arxiv.org/pdf/1601.05397 and you can see why the IPCC "experts" left it out of their literature.
$endgroup$
– daniel brastaviceanu
47 mins ago
$begingroup$
But anyways, TSI encompasses all the spectrum and if we look at what wavelengths from the Sun have the most heating effect here on Earth, we realize it's UV,, not infrared because the Sun is so far.. so it would be more relevant to look at UV output of the Sun during solar cycles and Grand Minimums/Maximums. Then the numbers would be more significant because they are not diluted within all the spectrum, from witch most wavelengths are irrelevant for heating effect. Cosmic ray increase affects climate also but those are particles.
$endgroup$
– daniel brastaviceanu
39 mins ago
$begingroup$
But anyways, TSI encompasses all the spectrum and if we look at what wavelengths from the Sun have the most heating effect here on Earth, we realize it's UV,, not infrared because the Sun is so far.. so it would be more relevant to look at UV output of the Sun during solar cycles and Grand Minimums/Maximums. Then the numbers would be more significant because they are not diluted within all the spectrum, from witch most wavelengths are irrelevant for heating effect. Cosmic ray increase affects climate also but those are particles.
$endgroup$
– daniel brastaviceanu
39 mins ago
$begingroup$
IPCC acknowledging solar Minimums and Maximums (11-year cycle) is irrelevant because this question is about GRAND Solar Minimums. Also, pointing to the latest IPCC report, citing cherry-picked older papers already rendered obsolete by monitoring data is irrelevant. This answer in not satisfactory. A quick "find in text" with keywords "Grand Solar Minimum" in IPCC literature reveals "0 on 0" results. I will keep the question as it is.
$endgroup$
– daniel brastaviceanu
26 mins ago
$begingroup$
IPCC acknowledging solar Minimums and Maximums (11-year cycle) is irrelevant because this question is about GRAND Solar Minimums. Also, pointing to the latest IPCC report, citing cherry-picked older papers already rendered obsolete by monitoring data is irrelevant. This answer in not satisfactory. A quick "find in text" with keywords "Grand Solar Minimum" in IPCC literature reveals "0 on 0" results. I will keep the question as it is.
$endgroup$
– daniel brastaviceanu
26 mins ago
1
1
$begingroup$
@danielbrastaviceanu - so the paper you cited in the comment clearly says the new sunspot assessments have no impact: "Using the SILSO record, global warming estimates attributable to solar variability over the last four centuries may be up to 20 % less than current estimates suggest, perhaps causing only a 0.08 °C increase rather than a possible 0.1 °C increase in global surface temperature. These differences are negligible compared to uncertainties, and either contribution to overall global warming remains much less than those due to other climate influences."
$endgroup$
– Mark
8 mins ago
$begingroup$
@danielbrastaviceanu - so the paper you cited in the comment clearly says the new sunspot assessments have no impact: "Using the SILSO record, global warming estimates attributable to solar variability over the last four centuries may be up to 20 % less than current estimates suggest, perhaps causing only a 0.08 °C increase rather than a possible 0.1 °C increase in global surface temperature. These differences are negligible compared to uncertainties, and either contribution to overall global warming remains much less than those due to other climate influences."
$endgroup$
– Mark
8 mins ago
|
show 2 more comments
$begingroup$
I think the main question has already been answered. But I would like to add to the fallacy that:
History shows solar activity is the main driver of our climate, among other factors.
The Sun is undoubtedly the main source of energy for the planet and its climate. However, variations in solar activity are not the main cause of variations in climate. The main drivers are the "other factors".
Some examples of that are:
Faint young Sun paradox: The climate on earth has remained in the range that allows the existence of liquid water during billions of years despite large changes in the luminosity of the sun.
Milankovitch cycles: The cycles that control the ice ages that have dominated the planet during the last million years are not due to changes in solar activity, but to changes in the orbit and orientation of the Earth.
New contributor
Max M. is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
I think the main question has already been answered. But I would like to add to the fallacy that:
History shows solar activity is the main driver of our climate, among other factors.
The Sun is undoubtedly the main source of energy for the planet and its climate. However, variations in solar activity are not the main cause of variations in climate. The main drivers are the "other factors".
Some examples of that are:
Faint young Sun paradox: The climate on earth has remained in the range that allows the existence of liquid water during billions of years despite large changes in the luminosity of the sun.
Milankovitch cycles: The cycles that control the ice ages that have dominated the planet during the last million years are not due to changes in solar activity, but to changes in the orbit and orientation of the Earth.
New contributor
Max M. is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
I think the main question has already been answered. But I would like to add to the fallacy that:
History shows solar activity is the main driver of our climate, among other factors.
The Sun is undoubtedly the main source of energy for the planet and its climate. However, variations in solar activity are not the main cause of variations in climate. The main drivers are the "other factors".
Some examples of that are:
Faint young Sun paradox: The climate on earth has remained in the range that allows the existence of liquid water during billions of years despite large changes in the luminosity of the sun.
Milankovitch cycles: The cycles that control the ice ages that have dominated the planet during the last million years are not due to changes in solar activity, but to changes in the orbit and orientation of the Earth.
New contributor
Max M. is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.
$endgroup$
I think the main question has already been answered. But I would like to add to the fallacy that:
History shows solar activity is the main driver of our climate, among other factors.
The Sun is undoubtedly the main source of energy for the planet and its climate. However, variations in solar activity are not the main cause of variations in climate. The main drivers are the "other factors".
Some examples of that are:
Faint young Sun paradox: The climate on earth has remained in the range that allows the existence of liquid water during billions of years despite large changes in the luminosity of the sun.
Milankovitch cycles: The cycles that control the ice ages that have dominated the planet during the last million years are not due to changes in solar activity, but to changes in the orbit and orientation of the Earth.
New contributor
Max M. is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.
New contributor
Max M. is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.
answered 2 hours ago
Max M.Max M.
811
811
New contributor
Max M. is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.
New contributor
Max M. is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.
Max M. is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.
add a comment |
add a comment |
Thanks for contributing an answer to Earth Science Stack Exchange!
- Please be sure to answer the question. Provide details and share your research!
But avoid …
- Asking for help, clarification, or responding to other answers.
- Making statements based on opinion; back them up with references or personal experience.
Use MathJax to format equations. MathJax reference.
To learn more, see our tips on writing great answers.
Sign up or log in
StackExchange.ready(function () {
StackExchange.helpers.onClickDraftSave('#login-link');
});
Sign up using Google
Sign up using Facebook
Sign up using Email and Password
Post as a guest
Required, but never shown
StackExchange.ready(
function () {
StackExchange.openid.initPostLogin('.new-post-login', 'https%3a%2f%2fearthscience.stackexchange.com%2fquestions%2f16272%2fwhy-do-climate-experts-from-the-un-ipcc-never-mention-grand-solar-minimum%23new-answer', 'question_page');
}
);
Post as a guest
Required, but never shown
Sign up or log in
StackExchange.ready(function () {
StackExchange.helpers.onClickDraftSave('#login-link');
});
Sign up using Google
Sign up using Facebook
Sign up using Email and Password
Post as a guest
Required, but never shown
Sign up or log in
StackExchange.ready(function () {
StackExchange.helpers.onClickDraftSave('#login-link');
});
Sign up using Google
Sign up using Facebook
Sign up using Email and Password
Post as a guest
Required, but never shown
Sign up or log in
StackExchange.ready(function () {
StackExchange.helpers.onClickDraftSave('#login-link');
});
Sign up using Google
Sign up using Facebook
Sign up using Email and Password
Sign up using Google
Sign up using Facebook
Sign up using Email and Password
Post as a guest
Required, but never shown
Required, but never shown
Required, but never shown
Required, but never shown
Required, but never shown
Required, but never shown
Required, but never shown
Required, but never shown
Required, but never shown
3
$begingroup$
See my answer below and please consider changing the title to something like "Do “climate experts” from the UN/IPCC consider Grand Solar Minimums?". So to do not convey misleading assumptions right from the start. I hope you are also "willing to reshape preconceptions based on new evidence" as you say.
$endgroup$
– Camilo Rada
2 hours ago
4
$begingroup$
@CamiloRada provided both an excellent answer, and a good suggestion about rewording the question to avoid a false assumption. Unfortunately there are still two other false assumptions in the question. First, there is not a 'present Grand Solar Minimum ... predicted since the 70s". And second, solar activity is not the main driver of our climate - for example the glacial and interglacial periods that have dominated the climate for the past million years or so are driven by subtle variations in earth's orbit and rotation.
$endgroup$
– Mark
2 hours ago
3
$begingroup$
"Playing fair" is a two-way street. You start out with some false claims - "solar activity is the main driver of our climate" - and some highly debatable ones - the very existence of a "Grand Solar Min/Maximum", and then want people to provide answers based on those assumptions. Is that playing fair?
$endgroup$
– jamesqf
1 hour ago
2
$begingroup$
Please don't SHOUT. It only makes you look like a crackpot, it does not help any serious discussion.
$endgroup$
– Vladimir F
1 hour ago
2
$begingroup$
Are you just trolling?
$endgroup$
– Eric Duminil
1 hour ago